Boeing and other strikes will take at least a 44,000-job bite out of the October jobs report

In October, the U.S. jobs report is projected to reflect a substantial decrease in employment figures, with at least 44,000 fewer jobs due to recent workers' strikes. This marks the largest monthly job reduction within the past year. A significant portion of this decline comes from the 33,000 machinists on strike at Boeing. Alongside the impact of two major hurricanes, these factors are expected to temporarily skew otherwise consistent employment growth figures. However, the final report before the election may not be as bleak as initially feared.

Analysts suggest that, excluding the distortions from strikes and natural disasters, the employment increase could have reached 200,000 jobs for October. Consequently, the adjusted forecast anticipates an increase of 120,000 jobs, providing an understated view of the true job creation pace. Additionally, Boeing's announced reduction of 10% of its workforce may further affect figures, predicting a loss of 5,000 to 7,000 jobs.

The recent hurricanes, which caused considerable damage in the Southeast, are expected to have a temporary economic impact, with a rebound anticipated in subsequent quarters. Despite the harsh timing of these events, the recovery efforts post-Helene have enabled faster-than-anticipated resumption of activities for individuals and businesses. The jobs report will rely on data from the pay period including the 12th of the month.